The NASDAQ reached a low of 14,784 this week, resting above the 200-week moving average at 14,616.37. In 2023, support was found just above this long-term average during a similar dip.
The price rebounded strongly, surpassing the 100-week moving average, currently at 16,299.86, which serves as an important support level. Maintaining this above the 100-week MA is essential for sustaining the recovery bias.
Key Technical Level
A critical technical level, the 38.2% retracement of the decline at 16,854.68, was not maintained. For further upside potential, the price must successfully break through and hold above this level.
This week’s performance indicates buyers successfully avoided a deeper market breakdown. A gain of 6.87% marks the best weekly performance since an 8.10% gain on November 7. Continued upward momentum depends on clearing and holding above 16,854.68.
This week’s technical moves provide a clear message: the longer-term support levels are still respected by the market, yet momentum remains highly reactive to key retracement levels. After dipping to 14,784, just above the tested 200-week moving average, buyers stepped back in with more confidence than we’ve seen in weeks. That rising tide lifted price action past the 100-week moving average—a layer that, despite volatility, has been pivotal in gauging sustained directional interest.
Historical Comparisons
History offers a helpful comparison here. In 2023, price bounced in a similar fashion after skimming the same long-term average. The difference this time lies in the strength and speed of the rebound. Price not only reclaimed levels lost during the recent fall, but did so with the strongest weekly gain since early November.
Yet, there’s a boundary. Notably, last week’s rally ran into trouble at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline. The inability to close confidently above 16,854.68 implies that short-term optimism could falter if fresh buying does not materialise quickly at higher elevations.
From our viewpoint, this failed attempt creates a natural line in the sand. Until price can establish a presence above this retracement, weekly upside remains capped. As past behaviour shows, once broken, these levels often flip roles—from resistance to support—and attract new directional bets. Until that happens though, the area stands as a pressure point for sellers.
At these levels, derivative traders need to favour entries when structure aligns with confirmed holds above moving averages. Emphasis should be placed not just on reaching price targets, but on sustainability—particularly whether futures stay above recently reclaimed long-term averages. Avoid chasing breakouts unless price and volume show proper follow-through. Sudden moves, such as the one seen this week, must translate into consolidation or progression.
Sellers regained some control near the retracement, which is itself a reliable decision zone. The reaction there wasn’t just technical—it hinted that profit taking remains active even during broad-based recoveries. Once buyers can prove they’re willing to absorb supply at or above that area, we’ll rethink short-leaning setups. Until then, bias needs validation from price structure, not from isolated gains.
Next week will test whether last week’s gains have depth, or if they were simply a positioning adjustment for quarter-end. The focus now turns to whether the market can show continuation through recent highs, not just bounce off base levels.
