NZDUSD is experiencing a notable rebound today after a false break downward the previous day. The pair briefly reached a low for 2025, also marking a low since October 2022, but failed to generate additional selling pressure.
Currently, NZDUSD has risen by 1.22%, making it one of the best performers against the USD, alongside AUDUSD. Increased stock values are fostering a risk-on sentiment, supporting the pair’s rise above the swing area of 0.5581 to 0.55918, establishing new short-term support.
Looking Towards Resistance
Looking towards resistance, key levels between 0.57099 and 0.57225 are identified, coinciding with moving averages that may hinder further upward movement. A breakout above these levels could lead the price towards the 38.2% retracement around 0.5838.
Key levels include:
– Support: 0.55918–0.5581
– Resistance: 0.5647, 0.57099–0.57225, then 0.5838
– Bias: Bullish short-term above 0.55918
That brief dip below the 2025 low was revealing. It seemed to invite sellers in, but follow-through was not there. Instead, we saw price reject those depths sharply. What followed was a firm upwards move, not just technical in nature but backed by broad gains across risk assets. Nasdaq futures climbed, equities in Asia found footing, and with that, currencies typically sensitive to risk—like antipodeans—leapt higher. Movement wasn’t random.
The pair clawed back lost ground, erasing the false break and now sitting comfortably above the 0.5581–0.55918 zone. Given how clearly that area now acts as a floor, it serves as the marker that any further pullbacks must hold to retain momentum. If breached again, sentiment shifts, possibly quickly.
Resistance between 0.57099 and 0.57225 is not theoretical. These levels are defined by both short-term price activity and moving averages, acting as structural barriers. We’re already seeing order flow thinning as price knocks toward those figures. A clean hourly close above that range allows scope for the pair to reach beyond recent bounds.
Next Steps
Next on the radar would be the 38.2% retracement from the late April drop, coming in around 0.5838. That level hasn’t been tested in some time, but with conditions supportive, the market may well turn its attention there. Anything less than full conviction around 0.57225 and buyers risk being squeezed.
It’s conditions around those contours—support near 0.559 and resistance near 0.572—that carry weight in the short term. Trading within them suggests indecision. Breaking beyond signals clearer intent.
Price behaviour over the next few sessions needs to be tracked closely. A retreat back under support doesn’t merely mean repositioning—it questions the strength of the rebound. That would push attention back toward the previous low, which took months to form and just one session to reject.
The context allows for plenty of short-term set-ups, but it encourages precision. Entries near support with tight risk make sense for those reacting to price rather than predicting direction. If we’re pushing higher though, acceptance above the moving average confluence near resistance ought to be seen quickly. Delays mean rejection. And rejection here tends to snowball.
Volume during this advance—not enormous, but decent—is consistent with macro flows seeing enough calm across equities and yields for corrections in previous USD strength to take hold. Weak hands disappeared at the recent lows, for now.
Be watchful also for changes outside the pair: a slide in equity futures or a sharp spike in yields could swiftly undercut this strength. So far, that hasn’t happened.
Conviction matters here. If these gains can push toward that retracement near 0.5838, it would be the first real test of buyers’ intent since April. Until then, attention stays focused on how price reacts between clearly defined tight bands. For us, that’s where most of the reading is done.
