Index Performance Overview
The S&P index is also projected to finish below its 100-week moving average of 5,146.43, currently at 5,094. Similarly, the Dow is at 38,473.97, falling short of its 100-week moving average of 38,745.40.
For the trading week, the Dow has decreased by 7.5%, marking its worst performance since March 2020, when it fell 17.3%. The S&P index is down 8.8%, indicating its worst week since a near 15% drop in March 2020, while the NASDAQ has fallen by 9.65%, its worst since March 2020’s 12.64% decline.
With all three major indices well below their longer-term trendlines, it’s clear that downward momentum has overwhelmed what little resilience was holding earlier in the quarter. Weekly closes under their 100-week moving averages aren’t just technical footnotes—they usually mark shifts in trader positioning and a reassessment of medium-term expectations. When benchmarks like these begin trading under long-held support lines, risk appetite tends to recoil swiftly, especially in the derivatives market where leverage exaggerates price swings.
What’s striking is not only the steepness of the drop, but the regularity of these back-to-back drawdowns in tech-heavy benchmarks like the NASDAQ. To see consecutive losses of this size, we’d have to reach back to events like the Dot-com unwinding or the Global Financial Crisis. Owen’s view—that these sorts of moves reflect more than short-term panic—seems increasingly difficult to dismiss.
Volatility And Risk Management
From our perspective, the charts tell a story that’s unmistakably bearish in structure. Breaks of multi-year averages indicate that long-term holders are either de-risking or stepping aside entirely. While headlines have rotated between macroeconomic concerns and earnings disappointments, the sustained volume behind this sell-off suggests that institutional capital is lowering exposure well beyond a knee-jerk response. One doesn’t get these kinds of weekly moves without broader portfolio adjustments.
In derivative markets, there’s already a visible shift in how options are being priced. Volatility premiums have jumped across expirations, suggesting that traders expect continued fluctuation beyond this session or even this week. And those premiums aren’t confined to downside protection—they’re expanding across the board, pointing to less certainty about both floors and ceilings. In this kind of tape, straddles and strangles begin to look more attractive than directional bets, especially for anyone concerned about risk-defined exposure.
