The U.S. 10-year yield has decreased nearly 10 basis points, currently at 4.148%. Earlier, it reached 4.133%, close to the 2025 low of 4.108% recorded in March.
The yields peaked on March 27 at 4.40%, exceeding the 50% retracement level of the February-March decline at 4.384%. This increase was brief, as yields resumed a downward trajectory thereafter.
Key Support Levels Breached
Today’s decline fell below important support levels, including 4.18%, 4.174%, and 4.157%. The yield is now under its 200-day moving average of 4.226%, with previous breaks in March not resulting in a sustained trend.
A bearish technical bias is developing, as last week’s rise to 4.400% failed near the 100-day moving average of 4.422%. If the downward trend persists, focus may shift towards the 2024 low of 3.605% established on September 11.
This recent stretch of yield action confirms that traders should be paying careful attention to the technical clues the bond market is providing. What originally appeared to be a continuation of the early-year rise in yields has quickly reversed. The increase toward the end of March, where yields reached 4.40%, lasted only briefly. That high did not just cap the rally—it was also aligned with a key retracement level, right at 4.384%. Failures at such levels often act as red flags, hinting that upward momentum is weakening.
We saw that weakness deepen today as the yield cut through a series of support points like 4.18%, 4.174%, and 4.157%. The fact that these levels didn’t act as pauses or bounce zones adds weight to the bearish signal. Importantly, yields are now sitting comfortably beneath the 200-day moving average at 4.226%. It’s not the first time this has happened—March had similar breaks—but the lack of any sustainable bounce then tells us that momentum may be shifting more decisively this time.
Technical Momentum And Market Implications
Worth noting is that last week’s attempt to push higher ran out of steam just below the 100-day moving average. That’s a classic technical rejection and adds to the downward lean. We’re now in a position where traders will need to model for follow-through, not just short-term volatility. The next clear reference point on the chart sits all the way down near 3.605%, which was the lowest yield level seen last September.
We must consider that the market is acting in a way that implies more confidence in rate cuts or softening inflation expectations. When the broader economic narrative doesn’t match this sort of move in yields, it’s often a sign that markets are repositioning ahead of a shift in tone. The specifics of why are almost less important than what is actually happening on the chart – and what that tells us about positioning.
Instruments tied to rate expectations may now start picking up this directional bias. It’s not just about where yields are today, but the way they failed to hold above those earlier highs and the ease with which they sliced through support. For those participating in rate derivatives, the steady build of lower highs and the inability to reclaim old technical ground matters quite a bit.
From here, we’ll want to monitor velocity as well—how quickly these moves develop will either confirm the new trend or suggest another reversal. If yields drift lower without much of a bounce, that says the pressure is consistent. But if we begin to see two-way flow near 4.10% and especially closer to 4.00%, some recalibration of expectations may be warranted. Still, the reference levels are clear, the directional cues are building, and the reaction to failed resistance near the moving averages cannot be ignored in trade structuring.
