The USDCAD has shown fluctuations today but has increased overall. The price is currently above the lows from February 25, March 6, and March 26, standing at 1.4238, which serves as a short-term support level.
For upward movement, the pair faces multiple resistance levels determined by moving averages. The 100-day moving average is at 1.4282, while the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart is at 1.42985, and the 200-bar moving average on the same chart is at 1.43238. Breaking these levels is essential for further upward momentum.
Market Bias And Support
What we’ve seen so far is a moderate but clear directional bias forming ever since the pair bounced from previously tested lows across late February through to late March. The support outlined at 1.4238 isn’t just decorative—it draws from price memory where a cluster of prior lows played out. Effectively, this zone is acting like a short-term safety net where buyers have latched on, cushioning against further downward momentum any time pressure builds from the sell side.
Price hovering above that base suggests traders have not committed to fresh lows, and instead may be sliding into a wait-and-see mode around upcoming resistance. You’re looking at three points ahead—1.4282, 1.42985, and 1.43238—none particularly far apart but each anchored by a different average. What that means for us is compression, a tightening space where the pair could either stall or surge depending on how it reacts around each level.
Let’s focus on how to read those resistance levels. The 100-day moving average doesn’t adjust quickly—it speaks more to sentiment that’s built over weeks. The other two—based on the 4-hour chart—capture shorter swings. When prices break above the 100-bar on the same timeframe, for example, it often invites speculative volume, expecting acceleration toward the 200-bar average. Should that final hurdle give way, we’d be staring at the potential for stronger gains, possibly enough to recalibrate near-term positions.
Resistance And Volatility
If the pair, however, finds itself repeatedly rejecting from these averages, the risk swings back towards a pull to that 1.4238 area. For now, we should observe whether the next tap of resistance sees increased range or volatility. Usually that will surface through technical misalignment—shorter-term charts pushing higher while daily momentum still hesitates at major averages.
Volatility pockets frequently form in these layered structures. When you overlay key averages from daily and intra-day perspectives, you’re likely to attract differing strategies—those positioning for short-term moves versus those targeting broader directional shifts. This kind of setup demands keen attention to price reaction near each level—if we start to get clean closes above consecutive metrics, then short-term traders would likely lean heavier on the long side, suspecting a move towards pre-March highs.
One last piece we mustn’t ignore: the proximity of each resistance level to the next accelerates risk. Once the first gives way, the next can follow in quick succession—and that’s where momentum traders often step in. Execution around these thresholds should be paced and reactive—not pre-emptive. We’ll likely see attempts to fade initial moves, but any persistence in upward motion should speak louder than isolated wicks or wobbles.
In the coming sessions, price action surrounding these thresholds will likely reveal who holds conviction. Don’t expect smooth sailing—retests are a normal part of confirmation. It’s the traps and follow-through that decide how sustainable any upside turn becomes.
