The USDCHF has reached new lows not seen since September 2011, dropping below the January 2015 swing low of 0.8346 and the December 2022 low of 0.83318. The recent low price reached is 0.8326, with sellers currently dominating the market.
Sellers aiming for further declines can use the range of 0.83735 to 0.84087 as a resistance level. If this area is breached, it may result in disappointment for those expecting the multi-decade downward trend to continue.
Downward Pressure Unchallenged
With the pair pressing into ranges not touched in over a decade, and staying there with minimal bounce, it does reinforce the idea that downward pressure is comfortable and, for now, unchallenged. In past cycles we’ve watched similar setups where support broke and traders hesitated, only for a faster-than-expected slide to follow. Given that, momentum-driven trading strategies could still find value, particularly with the absence of visible buyers above.
Looking back over the last three months, each shallow rally has been met with renewed selling. We believe this pattern suggests renewed confidence from those shorting, rather than signs of exhaustion. One exception would be a sharp reversal out of oversold conditions, but that’s not currently visible in any of the broader timeframes.
Now, focusing on that 0.83735 – 0.84087 range, it’s behaving more like a soft ceiling than anything structural. It’s been tested but not convincingly damaged. If it’s reclaimed and sustained on a daily close, some late-positioned traders might be forced to reassess. In that situation, especially if volume increases during the bounce, positioning shifts into more neutral territory and we’ve seen before how fast the unwind can be.
Defining and Managing Risk
However, as long as rallies are leaning into that zone and failing quickly, it sets up a tight framework for defining and managing risk. Although it’s a narrow corridor, it allows better control for entries rather than chasing moves once they’re underway. We tend to favour these clearer locations, because they help avoid the chop and save time normally spent reacting to emotional price swings.
Jordan’s recent comments on maintaining dovish policy should not be underestimated. The effect they’ve had on sentiment toward the Swiss franc is measurable, and for the traders holding shorts, it’s become a tailwind. The challenge now lies in the extent to which such policy settings are already fully reflected in price. That’s harder to gauge, but with rates set firmly, volatility may begin to compress again unless driven by external catalysts.
One could also note the lack of volume confirmation on upward price probes over the past two weeks. From our perspective, that suggests the buying happens in thinner conditions, without real conviction behind it. We’ve seen this sort of behaviour before – typically it precedes either a pause or a sudden breakdown. If it’s the former, that’s manageable. If it’s the latter, traders already in the move may want to trail their stops more aggressively.
Ultimately, this isn’t reactive positioning anymore – it’s controlled, comfortably in zone, and with fewer obstacles immediately visible. The deeper push below psychological levels, without any hard bounce, hints that demand has stepped aside rather than is waiting lower. Until that changes, planning around continuation rather than reversal appears the better choice.
We’ll be looking closely at US data, but barring surprises, the drivers look less macro and more trend-based for now. Seasonality doesn’t lend much edge at this point, but that changes come mid-July, and by then, the structure may look different.
Therefore, patience and precision win out in the short term. Locking into direction too early rarely pays, but refusing to act until a shift appears can also cause opportunity loss. There’s room for balance, if one works closely with the data they already have.
