USDJPY fell in early trading, testing the previous day’s low at 143.99 before recovering. The pair is now above a support zone from September 2024, between 144.45 and 144.56, which allows for potential upward movement.
The initial target for upward movement is the March 11 low near 146.53. If the pair breaks above and remains there, the next resistance zone is between 147.20 and 147.34, with the high from earlier this week at approximately 148.20 being the next key level.
Potential Bounce and Risk Levels
As long as USDJPY stays above 144.45, there is potential for a continued bounce towards higher targets. A drop below this level would refocus attention on the yearly low of 143.99, with minimal support until the range of 141.69 to 141.94.
We saw a sharp move lower in the early hours, with price action pressing down to challenge Monday’s floor at 143.99. That level held—just—and by mid-morning the pair had pushed back above 144.50. The move halts just inside a previous area of demand, traced from late September, creating conditions for a possible continuation to the upside.
Now that we are trading north of the 144.45–144.56 zone, a short-term bias in favour of buying remains. The current setup points toward a test of the March 11 trough near 146.53. Should that be cleared and sustained with conviction, the targets up the ladder fall into well-defined ranges: first at 147.20 through 147.34, and then again into the upper bound marked by last week’s high near 148.20.
Critical Levels and Market Reactions
Technical participants will note that as long as the pair holds above 144.45, momentum is oriented upward. Price only needs to remain steady for the 146.50 level to become more probable. That said, a failure, especially one marked by a daily close beneath the support zone, would reawaken interest in the recent low at 143.99. Below that, the vacuum left behind by little historical volume points directly to the area between 141.69 and 141.94. There’s little in the way that can stall the move until then.
Given the chart structure, we are treating recent weakness as corrective rather than impulsive. Volatility has begun to rise intraday, but not disproportionately. The slope of the recovery since Tuesday has been orderly enough to keep intraday flows balanced. Spot’s reaction to levels outlined earlier continues to align with prior behaviour, reinforcing their weight for setting orders.
As we look ahead, price behaviour around 144.45 becomes critical—this is where the market either finds energy to press on or fails to hold its footing. Deeper moves toward the low 140s would not come as a surprise should this level fold quickly. But unless that happens, we will continue treating the recovery as intact and the bias as constructive within the upper half of the current range.
