Bitcoin has shown a correlation with the Nasdaq over the past two years, though this connection is not absolute. Current market dynamics, influenced by concerns over the US dollar, have increased interest in alternative assets such as gold, the yen, and the Swiss franc.
Bitcoin’s resilience in April, where it performed better than stocks, indicates potential for future growth if it exceeds $86K, with specific attention on the April high of $88.6K. The evolving role of bitcoin as a versatile asset continues to attract scrutiny as market conditions shift.
The Nasdaqs Influence on Bitcoin
The observation that Bitcoin occasionally mirrors moves in the Nasdaq, yet not always, suggests that while macroeconomic factors affect both, the link is not consistent enough to anchor trading strategies solely to tech equities. Instead, it’s more productive to focus on moments where the two diverge. These instances often point to shifting investor behaviour or sentiment—especially in how risk is being priced in.
Recently, growing doubts around the stability or long-term outlook of the US dollar have spurred a wider reallocation into perceived safety nets. We’ve watched capital flow into gold, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc. That points to one thing: there’s rising discomfort among institutional participants regarding fiat exposure. These movements aren’t incidental. They’re a reaction to real concerns about inflation management, long-term debt, and yield volatility—all worth noting for those of us tracking derivative momentum linked to commodities and FX markets.
In April, Bitcoin showed strength when equities faltered. It held steady while traditional markets struggled under the weight of rate uncertainty and shifting expectations around US monetary policy. While that doesn’t automatically mark a turning point, it does suggest that Bitcoin is maturing into a more independent vehicle—capable of decoupling from broader risk assets under certain conditions. That raises the stakes for directional plays, particularly when positioning short-term options premiums.
The technical picture is getting tighter. With $86,000 acting as a nearby resistance, and the prior monthly high at $88,600 looming, we might see momentum traders test these levels aggressively. Should it breach that earlier barrier with conviction and volume, we’d expect volatility to expand notably—forcing repricing across open interest in call spreads. The actions around those resistance levels will give clues on whether buyers are prepared to sustain any breakthrough or not.
Price compression in recent sessions has created a coiled setup—one that usually doesn’t last long. If there’s an upside breakout, it will likely drag implied volatility up with it, which, in turn, could push three-month volatility skew towards calls, especially at the $90,000 and $95,000 strikes. Participants holding neutral gamma could be forced to chase delta, amplifying any move temporarily. For that reason, it’s worth staying nimble.
Funding Rates and Market Positioning
In terms of funding rates, we’re seeing oscillation but no decisive pick-up yet, suggesting traders are still probing rather than fully committing in either direction. Should funding start trending aggressively positive, that would signal leveraged long positions building, which bears watching for potential blow-off moves. However, current positioning hints at caution—not exuberance.
Watch the Swissy and yen particularly closely. They are moving stealthily but firmly. Hedging behaviour via currency options and futures has been aligning more tightly with bitcoin’s price movements, particularly during US session hours—another tell that traders are viewing digital assets as a hedge or satellite component during dollar softness.
Key now is how implied volatility behaves relative to spot. If spot creeps higher while implied lags, that’s often a fade set-up. But if implied starts lifting ahead of spot, it points to aggressive directional positioning and possibly insider flows. Monitoring that relationship can offer valuable clues for how to structure calendar spreads or gamma scalps over the next two to three weeks.
Ultimately, it’s the levels that matter, and the reaction to them. Rejection at resistance could trigger a sharp flush down toward recent swing lows. But sustained bidding above the April high opens the door to a much broader re-rating, especially if macro inputs continue to favour non-dollar assets. In that case, optionality becomes more expensive, and the cost of staying directionally exposed rises. Timing that move won’t be easy, but the market is beginning to offer tighter signals.
