US wholesale sales rose by 2.4% in February, following a previous decrease of 1.3%. The earlier figure was adjusted to reflect a decline of 0.9%.
Inventories experienced a growth of 0.3%, consistent with the previous period’s rate. This information may positively impact GDP forecasts, although it may be affected by anticipatory measures concerning tariffs.
Rebound in Wholesale Sales
Wholesale sales in the United States have shown a clear month-on-month rebound, rising by 2.4% in February. This comes after a previously reported drop of 1.3%, which has now been revised to a smaller decline of 0.9%. Such a revision isn’t unusual, but the direction and scale of the new figure adds context to how the market may have overreacted in January.
Meanwhile, inventories continued to record modest expansion, growing 0.3% for a second month in a row. No deviation there; it reflects stable stock replenishment, which supports supply-side reliability. When considered together, these two data points offer a broad hint that demand may be picking up again—not wildly, but enough to nudge output forecasts higher. As these sales numbers feed directly into GDP calculations, they’re being watched closely by macro models.
However, one factor that shouldn’t go unnoticed is the timing of trade policy speculation. The risk of upcoming levies has led some businesses to accelerate orders—importers trying to get ahead of higher costs. That demand then inflates top-line sales temporarily. If those pre-emptive moves occurred in February, we shouldn’t be overconfident when extrapolating March or April patterns. We’ll know more as price indices and customs data emerge.
Evaluating Market Signals
From our seat, the month’s inventory build doesn’t yet suggest aggressive restocking. That means it’s likely responding to organic sales levels rather than signalling broad-based optimism from producers or distributors. In terms of momentum, it’s decent, but we’re not calling this a pivot—just a stabilisation after a pullback last month.
For traders watching term structure and pricing trends, there’s a short window where some clarity exists. Reaction across rate-linked products has been quiet, signalling reduced sensitivity for now. That said, spreads at the front-end of the curve have become more reactive to interim economic pulses like these, which keep risk premium compression from becoming the default state.
Powell’s team is unlikely to treat this jump in sales as a pronounced shift. Closely following related indicators such as core capital goods and net exports will help us clarify whether this particular slice of data aligns or diverges from broader Q1 themes. We expect more information flow in the next week to either confirm the front-loading theory or point toward a pattern that might reflect a less uneven quarter.
Those adjusting pricing volatility or gamma exposure should avoid locking into a one-directional narrative. While spot indicators are suggestive of demand stabilisation, the forward signals don’t yet support persistent acceleration. Watching what’s priced into near-term swaps and rate-implied probabilities will be the cleaner way to understand how much of this month’s surprise is being internalised by the market.
As that unwinds, it’s best we align our models not just with realised activity, but with how expectations are shifting in live markets.
