WTI crude oil futures closed at $71.20, falling by $0.28 or -0.39%. During the day, prices peaked at $72.10 and dipped to $71.03.
Prices remain within the range of their 100-day moving average at $70.65 and the 200-day moving average at $72.69. The 50% midpoint of the decline from the 2025 high is at $71.00.
Technical Positioning Of WTI Futures
For upward momentum, the price must exceed the 200-day moving average and the 50% midpoint, although sellers may emerge at these levels.
OPEC+ members are scheduled to meet on Thursday, though no changes to the current gradual production increase set for April are anticipated. Tensions continue between Ukraine and Russia regarding peace agreement violations, with additional sanctions from President Trump suggested.
This section outlines the latest position of West Texas Intermediate crude futures, which saw a subdued decline over the trading session. The daily high reached $72.10 before easing down to settle at $71.20. On shorter timeframes, intraday price action revealed minimal directional bias, and though sellers nudged the contract lower by 39 basis points, the real insight comes from how closely futures are coiled between critical moving averages.
At present, the futures price floats between well-observed levels: the 100-day average around $70.65 and the 200-day near $72.69. Both these levels are popular among trend-followers and are widely tracked by models that assign weight to medium-term momentum. Importantly, price action remains unresolved around the mid-retracement mark — the 50% level of the drawdown from the 2025 peak, sitting squarely at $71.00. This level often acts as a sort of equilibrium line, and any repeated touches without follow-through suggest a reluctance to commit directionally either way.
Now, zooming out just slightly, what this all tells us is that upside conviction continues to be tested in the short term. While a push above the 200-day average would technically favour buyers, evidence from the past few sessions tells us supply becomes much more active in that zone. It’s as if the sellers are using those recalculated highs as an opportunity to reshuffle risk or fade enthusiasm. If price does attempt to break above, premature optimism might become a trap if follow-through volume does not accompany the move — something we’ll be monitoring closely.
Factors Influencing Short Term Volatility
Looking outward and adding to the calculus, there’s an approaching policy meeting for the members of the producers’ coalition due later this week. The trajectory they’re currently following — a staggered return of output by April — is expected to stay unchanged. Market consensus seems to already discount this view, and therefore, barring an unexpectedly assertive intervention, the event may end up as more of a reaffirmation rather than a trigger for directional interest.
Political developments in Eastern Europe also loom larger than headline snippets might suggest. Renewed discord around ceasefire commitments, particularly pointed between Kyiv and Moscow, introduces a layer of geopolitical tension that commodities traders shouldn’t overlook. These conditions can lead to disruptive pricing moves in the short term, especially if upcoming sanctions — alluded to by the administration in Washington — are formalised and touch energy exports or supply logistics. Reaction in futures may not be immediate, but implied volatility often stirs in the options market as risk repricing begins.
For us, when looking across the board, responsiveness to levels rather than prediction beyond them should guide the near-term playbook. Any engagements with the above-referenced moving averages or retracement zones must be handled with agility. There’s too much compression in price right now to assume that the next move will deliver a trend out of nothing. Market structure still feels two-way, and respecting those boundaries might be the best defence against premature positioning.
As the week unfolds, we’ll be keeping an eye on volume around breakout attempts and whether spreads across nearby contracts begin to widen — a small clue that stronger participation may be returning.
